Diversion manoeuvres by the regime aside, what will give for the dialogue to finally take off?

 

Forget about the diversion manoeuvres employed by the regime, the big question now is what will give for the country to finally conduct the elusive political dialogue?

  

Pictures: (Left)The entrance of the burnt public library in Nhlangano a town located in the south of eSwatini, and (Right) a retail complex in a village called Luyengo in central part of eSwatini in the aftermath of the June 2021 protests.(pic credit, the author)

A few weeks ago, on the 29th June 2022 eSwatini came to a complete standstill as citizens adhered to calls from the pro-democracy movement to observe a one day stay away in commemoration of what they call the brutal killing of activists on the similar date a year previous, the 29th June 2021. The stay away call was of course opposed by the eSwatini government, who instead mobilised the public to continue with their usual activities just like any other day.

The success of the stay away, acknowledged by the state daily newspaper the eSwatini Observer with the headline on 30^th June “The Public Stays Away” , came in as a definite boost to the prodemocracy movement in their  navigation of what seems like a complex journey towards making eSwatini achieve a democratic political dispensation. This may have been a long standing call but it gained momentum around May 2021 when protests, calling for justice for a University of eSwatini student called Thabani Nkomonye who was feared killed by police.

By June 2021 the #JusticeforThabani movement had transformed into an all-out popular movement seeking the democratisation of eSwatini. Protests had spread countrywide and sought to cover all the electoral constituencies, petitioning Members of Parliament (MPs) to amend the constitution. The government reacted by issuing an order banning the delivery of petitions on 22 June 2021, a move defied by the protesters and to which government then reacted with brute force.

On the 29^th June the country descended into an unprecedented civil unrest, which many commentators are wont to say brought eSwatini to the treacherous verge of a civil war. In that period free movement was curtailed, roads were empty albeit occupied by protesters burning tyres and logs at intervals, intermittent internet shutdown were effected by the government, shops were closed and the state was nowhere in sight to maintain law and order.

In the aftermath more than eighty (80) people were killed by the state with over two hundred injured and arrested. Financial losses, particularly to the retail sector as well as public infrastructure, ran up to an estimated $150 Million. A few weeks later three MPs were charged with inciting violence and terrorism, two of them Mduduzi Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube were arrested, denied bail and are still battling, defending those charges in the high court of eSwatini. The third, Mduduzi Simelane, escaped to exile in South Africa and has since established a political party called the Swaziland Liberation Movement (SWALIMO).

The global community made up of civil society organisations, governments and intergovernmental agencies expressed concern, outrage and condemnation on the deteriorating state of affair in the country. Institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU) the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the European Union (EU) all issued strongly worded statements on the crisis, all calling for political dialogue to end the impasse. The USA took unprecedented measures to beef up security at its properties by importing a battalion of USA Marines into eSwatini and many countries issued travels advisories to their citizens.

The eSwatini state, responding to international pressure, acceded and publicly committed to political dialogue. However, from the onset, the eSwatini government displayed gross intransigence regarding the implementation of the political dialogue. Without even holding any discussion with the pro-democracy movement they announced that they would utilise section 232 of the eSwatini constitution which envisages an Annual General Meeting (Sibaya in native Siswati language) of the Swazi nation. This meeting is open to all adult eSwatini citizens and is chaired by the King.

Whereas the local prodemocracy movement as well as a vast majority of international community players had envisaged a roundtable between political parties and the eSwatini government that would result in the handover of power to an interim political authority which would in turn conduct multi-party elections.

The government pulled many stops to sell their approach to the global community. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly on 21 September 2021 eSwatini Prime Minister Cleopas Dlamini said, “Our country is committed to a process of consultation with the people at the people’s parliament, Sibaya, and other dialogue forums through which people provide advice and counsel to the King that ensures transparency and accountability. As a nation we shall remain seized with the preservation of our cultural norms and traditions, promoting peace and stability, addressing our different opinions in a peaceful manner, not by violence”.

Continuing in its rejection of Sibaya, the prodemocracy movement convened a conference in November 2021 in Johannesburg, South Africa. In the conference they debated and produced proposed political dialogue terms of reference and submitted same to SADC. In May 2022 the   SADC, in line with commitments made during the Cyril Ramaphosa visit, served the eSwatini government with proposed terms of reference to get the ball rolling towards the political dialogue.

In the aftermath of these events the eSwatini government appears to be taking a hard-line stance that risk isolating them globally. Recently the Government of Eswatini spokesperson Alpheos Nxumalo commented to a local newspaper that the government will not entertain any pressure from any state or institutions to hold dialogue. He added that they would convene political dialogue under their own terms without any regard to any pressure from any institution and or country. Possibly a push back to SADC as reliable sources have revealed that the SADC proposed terms of reference also reject Sibaya as the proper forum.

In the meantime the situation on the ground is tethering towards a full blown civil war. For instance there have been sporadic burning of properties of state as well as private companies that are allegedly linked to the eSwatini state. Personal properties of  several prodemocracy movement leaders including Wandile Dludlu and Penuel Malinga  of PUDEMO, Wander Mkhonza of the Secretary General of the trade union, the Amalgamated Trade Union of Swaziland (ATUSWA) ,several night raids as well as harassment to prodemocracy activists. The president of the Swaziland National Union of Students (SNUS) Colani Maseko also suffered life threatening injuries after being abducted and assaulted by the eSwatini Army while attending a student protest at the University of eSwatini.  

SADC has convened a special summit in Pretoria, South Africa on 21 July 2022 in which the eSwatini political stalemate is one of the main agenda items. The outcomes of that summit will be an important indication as to the possibility of the resolution and ushering in of a new political dispensation in eSwatini.